by Jbs123008 d3 — January 5, 2009—The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009) reference case recently released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents updated projections for US energy consumption and production through 2030. The full AEO2009 report will be released in early 2009, along with regional projections.
Oil Use and Import Dependence: For the first time in more than 20 years, the new AEO projects virtually no growth in US oil consumption, reflecting the combined effect of recently enacted CAFE standards, requirements for increased use of renewable fuels, and an assumed rebound in oil prices as the world economy recovers.
Natural Gas Use and Import Dependence: The reference case raises EIA’s projection for US production and consumption of natural gas, reflecting increased availability of resources and higher demand for electric power generation.
Total Primary Energy Use and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Efficiency policies and higher energy prices in AEO2009 slow the rise in US energy use, which is projected to grow from 101.9 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 113.3 quadrillion Btu in 2030.
Oil Prices: In 2007 dollars, the world crude oil price, averaging near $60 in 2009, rises as the global economy rebounds and global demand once again grows more rapidly than non-OPEC liquids supply. In 2030, the average real price of crude oil is $130 per barrel in 2007 dollars ($189 per barrel in nominal dollars).
Renewable Energy Use: Total consumption of marketed renewable fuels—including wood, municipal waste, and biomass in the end use sectors; hydroelectricity, geothermal, municipal waste, biomass, solar, and wind for electric power generation; ethanol for gasoline blending; and biomass-based diesel—grows by 3.3% per year in the AEO2009 reference case.
Vehicle Characteristics: A sharp increase in the sale of unconventional vehicle technologies, such as flex-fuel, hybrid, and diesel vehicles, and a significant decline in the new light-truck share of total light-duty vehicle sales are projected.
Other highlights of the AEO2009 projections include:
- Coal, oil, and natural gas meet 79% of total US primary energy supply requirements in 2030, down from an 85% share in 2007.
- Total electricity consumption, including both purchases from electric power producers and on-site generation, grows from 3,903 billion kWh 2007 to 4,902 billion kWh in 2030.
- New natural gas and renewable plants account for the majority of generating capacity additions. The natural gas share of electricity generation remains between 19% and 22% through 2030. Coal’s generation share declines from 49% to 45% between 2007 and 2025, then rebounds slightly to 47% in 2030 as a small number of new coal plants are added.
