by Brianna Crandall — August 22, 2016 — Solar power is finally maturing as a key energy source on the global stage, according to new analysis from global growth partnership company Frost & Sullivan. In addition to green targets, energy independence, and distributed energy, a crucial market accelerator has been the defining of the structure of feed-in tariff (FiT) for solar photovoltaic (PV)-generated power. Along with regulatory dynamics and incentives, this has lowered the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of solar power.
With higher economies of scale, the cost of solar power systems for both residential and utility-scale PV will reach grid parity by 2020 and increase uptake of decentralized solar energy, according to the report. As a result, stakeholders from raw material suppliers, solar cell manufacturers, solar module manufacturers, and balance of system equipment suppliers to system integrators and installers are positioned for robust growth.
The new analysis, Global Solar Power Market — 2016 Update, finds that market revenues stood at $113.75 billion in 2015 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% to reach $179.13 billion in 2020. Installed capacity with grow from 50,780 MW to 76,600 MW at a CAGR of 8.6% for the same period.
Frost & Sullivan Energy & Environment research analyst Pritil Gunjan stated:
Pro-solar incentives and the recently made pledges at the COP 21 summit will ensure that the market for solar PV continues to grow exponentially over the next five years. Grid integration of renewables and investment in energy storage initiatives are other market enablers.
Geographically, Asia is expected to see aggressive expansion of solar PV fueled by economic growth, urbanization and greater electrification:
- Asia’s market share will rise to 64.1% by 2020, with China, India and Japan together accounting for more than 80% of all solar installations planned over the next five years. China and Japan will lead with compelling FiT rates and capacity-based rebate programs.
- North America will witness a robust growth with the extension of investment tax credit eligibility for solar generators until 2019. By 2020, the region will have about 20 million residential prosumers. Fiscal incentives, technological advancements, and new solar leasing models will be strong drivers.
- Europe, however, will suffer a setback due to withdrawal of subsidies and incentives. Huge overcapacity, coupled with price decline of solar modules, will see suppliers struggling to make profits.
- Investments in grid infrastructure, especially in remote off-grid locations, will energize demand in the emerging markets of Latin America and Africa.
Gunjan noted:
Extreme weather variations, declining energy reserves, and increase of distributed generation technologies will compel utilities to seek newer models supporting energy efficiency and energy management initiatives. The solar PV supply chain participants are expected to develop new technologies that will lower costs and integrate PVs with flexible infrastructure grids. Innovative business models to integrate solar power will also open opportunities in smart metering, demand response and net metering.
Global Solar Power Market — 2016 Update is part of the firm’s Energy & Power Growth Partnership Service program. All studies included in the firm’s subscriptions provide detailed market opportunities and industry trends evaluated following extensive interviews with market participants.
