by jbs011110 a3 — January 13, 2010—Despite signs that the overall U.S. economy is beginning to improve, nonresidential construction spending is expected to decrease by 13.4 percent in 2010, with a marginal increase of 1.8 percent in 2011 in inflation-adjusted terms, according to the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters.
Commercial and industrial projects will continue to see the most significant decrease in activity, says AIA. The industrial segment is expected to decline 24.3 percent in 2010 and 7.8 percent in 2011, with hotels close behind at a 23.5 percent decline in 2010 but a 5.4 percent increase in 2011. Office buildings are expected to fare slightly better at -18.6 percent in 2010 and 11.8% in 2011, with retail at -17.2 percent and 3.2 percent.
Thanks, in part, to federal stimulus spending, institutional building categories will fare better over this period, says AIA. The amusement/recreation segment should decline 12.9 percent in 2010, then rise 4.4 percent in 2011, with the religious sector decreasing 5.8 percent then increasing 2.0 percent. Education should follow close behind at -5.6 percent and 6.0 percent, and healthcare facilities at -0.3 percent and 2.5 percent. Public safety is the only segment expected to increase in 2010, at 0.8 percent, then decrease in 2011, at 0.1 percent.
