by Rebecca Walker — February 4, 2011—Renewable energy sources other than hydropower will continue to grow strongly over the next two decades, increasing their share of the global energy supply from 2 percent today to 6 percent in 2030, according to BP.
The energy company’s new publication, the BP Energy Outlook, sees renewable energy as the fastest-growing source of energy over the next 20 years, leading a gradual shift from coal and oil. Renewable energy sources are projected to grow at a rate of 8.2 percent per year over the next two decades, while natural gas becomes the fastest-growing fossil fuel, increasing at a rate of 2.1 percent per year. As a result, oil, coal, and natural gas are each forecast to provide about 26 percent to 27 percent of the world’s energy needs in 2030, with nuclear power, hydropower, and non-hydro renewable energy sources each providing about 7 percent, according to the report.
BP expects global energy use to rise nearly 40 percent by 2030, with 93 percent of the growth occurring in developing countries. However, energy efficiency gains will help to moderate this growth. As a result, energy intensity, defined as the energy use per unit of economic output, will continue its historic trend downward and will decline at an accelerating rate, according to the company.
The BP Energy Outlook, released January 19, is the first of BP’s forward-looking analyses to be made available to the public. For more information, see the Web site.
