by Shane Henson — November 25, 2011— America is making good steps on its path to reducing energy costs and improving energy efficiency, according to a report released by economists at The Brattle Group, a provider of consulting and expert testimony in economics, finance, and regulation to corporations, law firms, and governments around the world.
For the report, Energy Efficiency and Demand Response in 2020—A Survey of Expert Opinion, The Brattle Group surveyed 50 energy experts. According to the survey and report, energy efficiency is likely to cause a drop of 5-15% in U.S. electricity consumption by the year 2020, relative to forecast trends. Electric peak demand is likely to drop by 7.5-15% compared to forecast trends, and natural gas consumption is expected to drop by 5-10% compared to forecast trends.
The energy experts say these reductions will likely be brought on by factors such as the rising costs of generating and delivering electricity and natural gas, rapid advances in appliance and building technology, innovative rate design, and cultural shifts in American values that encourage behavioral change.
The analysis reveals a surprising consensus on the size of the impact from increased energy efficiency in the United States. However, it also finds considerable variation across regions, sectors, programs, and end-uses. For instance, the West North Central Division is expected to only see savings in electricity consumption in the 1.5-2.5% range, while the Mountain Division is expected to see savings in the 5-16% range.
Significantly, dynamic pricing programs are expected to garner between 7.5-20% of residential consumers, while participation rates for commercial and industrial consumers will range from 10-30%.
“The survey clearly shows that the age of energy efficiency has not come to an end,” said Ahmad Faruqui, one of the study’s authors. “On the contrary, the survey heralds a period of acceleration for energy efficiency.”
