by Jbs122809 b3 — December 30, 2009—The Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO2010) early-release reference case released in December by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents updated projections for U.S. energy consumption and production through 2035.
“Our projections show that existing policies that stress energy efficiency and alternative fuels, together with higher energy prices, curb energy consumption growth and shift the energy mix toward renewable fuels,” said EIA Administrator Richard Newell. “However, assuming no new policies, fossil fuels would still provide about 78 percent of all the energy used in 2035.”
These reference case projections do not include the effects of potential future policies that have not yet become law, and only include technologies that are commercially available or can reasonably be expected to become commercially available over roughly the next decade. Some of the key findings are:
- Moderate energy consumption growth and greater use of renewables: total primary energy consumption grows by 14 percent between 2008 and 2035, as the fossil fuel share of total U.S. energy consumption falls from 84 percent to 78 percent;
- Declining reliance on imported liquid fuels: total U.S. consumption of liquid fuels, including biofuels, grows from 19 million barrels per day in 2008 to 22 million barrels per day in 2035, but biofuels account for all of the growth;
- Shale gas drives growth in domestic natural gas production (from 20.6 trillion cubic feet in 2008 to 23.3 trillion cubic feet in 2035) and reduces reliance on imported gas;
- Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continue to grow at 0.3 percent per year due to the electric power and transportation sectors, although per capita emissions fall by 0.6 percent per year; and
- Total electricity consumption, including both purchases from electric power producers and on-site generation, grows by 1 percent per year over the projection period.
