by Brianna Crandall — November 22, 2010—The broad greenhouse gas policy commitments and plans of countries around the world will not be sufficient to avoid significant increases in average global temperatures, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s newest annual World Energy Outlook, released November 9.
According to an analysis by the U.S. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), one of the scenarios in this year’s IEA report is the “New Policies Scenario,” which includes commitments such as the Copenhagen Accord. But even under that scenario, world energy demand increases by 36 percent between 2008 and 2035, or 1.2 percent per year on average, and fossil fuels still dominate the world’s energy mix in 2035.
As a result, the concentration of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere is projected to stabilize at the equivalent of 650 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide, resulting in a likely long-term temperature rise of more than 3.5C (6.3F) above pre-industrial levels. In contrast, the Copenhagen Accord has a stated goal of limiting the long-term temperature rise to less than 2C, which is thought to correspond to stabilizing greenhouse gases at the equivalent of 450 ppm of carbon dioxide.
Under the New Policies Scenario, developing countries account for 93 percent of the projected increase in world energy demand, with China contributing 36 percent of that projected growth.
Although fossil fuels lose market share to renewable energy and nuclear power under the scenario, they still dominate the energy mix, with oil remaining the leading fuel, followed by coal and natural gas. Oil consumption continues to grow, even though prices are expected to reach $113 per barrel in 2035. But of the three fossil fuels, gas consumption grows most rapidly, increasing 44 percent by 2035.
Meanwhile, renewable energy use is expected to triple, causing its share of world energy demand to increase from 7 percent in 2008 to 14 percent in 2035. A key to that growth is a boost in worldwide government support for renewable energy, increasing from an estimated $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion in 2035, says the report.
The World Energy Outlook Web site includes links to a presentation, executive summaries in nine languages, six fact sheets, and nine key graphs.
