by Brianna Crandall — April 2, 2014—Consistent improvements in technology and gradually lower costs will drive high-concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) systems to superior efficiencies, making HCPV an increasingly viable rival to conventional solar-generating solutions, according to the latest analysis from global information company IHS Technology.
The cell efficiency of HCPV systems, currently at 40-42%, will exceed 45% by 2017. Such cells, used with concentrating optics, will then lead to commercial-system efficiencies approaching 40%, compared to the less-than-35% conversion rates typical at present, as shown in the accompanying figure.
The cell efficiency of HCPV systems, currently at 40-42%, will exceed 45% by 2017. Such cells, used with concentrating optics, will then lead to commercial-system efficiencies approaching 40%, compared to the less-than-35% conversion rates typical at present.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The anticipated improvements in HCPV systems are based on cell efficiencies having reached 44.7% in laboratory conditions, indicating that further advances are possible. Even so, the gains in efficiency will have to be balanced against the additional manufacturing costs expected to be incurred when implementing the improvements, notes the report.
Driven by falling system prices, HCPV is gradually becoming attractive in several regions of the world. IHS forecasts that the United States (where most HCPV suppliers are based) and Central America will install the largest number of HCPV systems between 2012 and 2017, serving as the world’s biggest regional market. Installations for the region reached 54.1 megawatts in 2012. IHS also expects enormous growth (560% by 2017) in South America, and China could also emerge as an important player. But the greatest increase is expected to take place in the Middle East and Africa region, which will grow to 155 megawatts in 2017, up from just 1.8 megawatts in 2012.
Following a turbulent period of dramatic cost and price reductions for conventional photovoltaics that hurt many CPV pioneers, the industry has regained stability since 2013, and advances in new technologies continue to reduce costs. The major players in the CPV manufacturing market include Suncore Photovoltaics from China and Soitec Solar from France (the two largest), as well as Solaria and SunPower from California, Magpower SA from Portugal, Heliotrop from France, and North Carolina-based Semprius.
The HCPV supplier base will continue to change in the next five years as the current market is still in its early phases of growth, with several newcomers and start-ups expected to liven up the competition, IHS believes.
Concentrated PV (CPV) Report – 2013: CPV on the Edge of Market Breakthrough is available from the Solar Supply Chain research service at IHS.
