by Shane Henson — July 18, 2012—Cost has long been the name of the game with light-emitting diodes (LEDs), but focus is now shifting from the package to the surrounding balance of system, with innovation in areas such as thermal management, drivers, and optics helping to halve prices of LED bulbs to $11.06 in 2020, according to Lux Research, a provider of advice and on-going intelligence for emerging technologies.
The report, titled Cheaper, Brighter, Cooler: The Need for Cost Reduction Past the Package, is part of Lux Research’s energy electronics intelligence service.
According to the report, costs of the central LED package will fall by more than 70% to $2.14 in the next decade, constituting 19% of the bulb costs in 2020. However, to drive overall costs lower—and ensure adoption in a market still dominated by incandescent and compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs)—other system costs need to keep pace.
Lux Research analysts studied the key LED cost stack components of a 60 W incandescent equivalent LED bulb as well as the technologies available to accelerate cost cuts in order to understand the true pathways to LED bulbs’ potential. Among their findings:
- Thermal management will yield modest cost gains: Thermal management is the biggest target for cost reduction past the package. Active thermal management technologies such Nuventix’s SynJet will lead to cost savings over aluminum-based solutions, but only from 2017
- Dimmable drivers lead to energy savings: Dimmable drivers are priced at a premium to non-dimmable ones because they enable precise control of the light output and lead to energy savings. Innovation in this area will bring about a 1% cost saving in 2020, boosting the performance of the LEDs overall.
- Secondary optics in focus: Secondary optics account for about 5% of the total cost of a 60 W equivalent LED bulb. The field is dominated by specialists such as Ledil, Khatod, and Fraen, and innovation lies in improving the shape of the beam and the ability to collect more light from primary optics.
- Dimmable drivers lead to energy savings: Dimmable drivers are priced at a premium to non-dimmable ones because they enable precise control of the light output and lead to energy savings. Innovation in this area will bring about a 1% cost saving in 2020, boosting the performance of the LEDs overall.
