by Ann Withanee — August 12, 2011—A new report by Lux Research provides facilities managers with strategic updates on emerging technologies, particularly as they relate to achieving “green” in new construction. The report focuses on the demand for a more energy-efficient thermal envelope, from smart windows to improved insulation, and projects how this portion of the commercial market will expand.
Green buildings are already the construction industry’s highest growth sector, acknowledges the report. This is part of a broader shift towards more energy efficient construction that is driving demand by facilities managers for efficiency improvements in the windows, walls, roofs, and foundation that collectively comprise the so-called thermal envelope. Although incumbent solutions will continue to dominate the market, a handful of emerging technologies—including dynamic smart windows and advanced insulation—will build from a negligible commercial market today into an $829 million market in 2020, according to the new report from Lux Research.
The report, titled Opening the Thermal Envelope: Emerging Innovation in Dynamic Windows and Advanced Insulation, forecasts that dynamic windows, which can switch from a clear to a darkened state to provide shading from the sun, will represent a $418 million market by 2020. Meanwhile, emerging insulation technologies like aerogels and phase-change materials will find small but profitable niches in the thermal envelope, with 2020 market sizes of $230 million and $130 million, respectively. Vacuum insulation panels will struggle with usability and high costs, and reach just $50 million in the building sector in 2020.
The report also finds that:
- Europe outpaces the U.S. to provide the most fertile ground. Emphasis on the thermal envelope is one part of a broader green building movement, spurred by government building construction and efficiency standards. High energy prices and strict energy-efficiency regulations continue to drive Europe as the market leader in dynamic windows, with a 57 percent market share.
- Growth will accelerate as dynamic windows reach scale and costs drop. Scale is critical to reduce costs, and dynamic windows are seeing particular progress in this area. The most likely scenario will see dynamic window technologies undergo modest annual cost reductions of five percent for electrochromics and two percent for thermochromics, bringing prices down to open up new markets. If costs were to fall at twice that rate, this market would grow to more than $1.4 billion.
Opening the Thermal Envelope: Emerging Innovation in Dynamic Windows and Advanced Insulation is part of the Lux Green Buildings Intelligence service available by subscription to facilities managers and other energy management professionals.
